Many of the nonprofits in Chicagoland focus on providing goods and services to local families. Their target audiences may be experiencing financial insecurity, come from a certain racial or ethnic background, are part of an immigrant community, are in a certain age bracket (e.g., children or seniors), or are part of another target demographic.
While these nonprofits often have a qualitative sense of their communities' needs, many struggle to quantitatively understand how their communities are changing over time - which is necessary for the "big decisions" about where to focus and resource allocation.
In this series, Focus Strategy Advisors provides a by-the-numbers view of some of the demographic shifts at play in Chicagoland communities and identifies what that means for the nonprofits that serve them.
This is a sample the types of data and analyses Focus Strategy Advisors can bring to help nonprofits understand how the communities they serve are changing. For a deeper look into your specific focus geographies, target segments, and their respective needs contact us at Info@FocusStrategyAdvisors.com
Today, we’re looking at Chicago’s West Side.
Chicago’s West Side consists of the communities bounded by the North and South Branches of the Chicago River, the western city limits, and North and Grand Avenues. It has the second largest population of Chicago’s nine “sides,” and consists of West Town, Near West Side, Lower West Side, Humboldt Park, East & West Garfield Parks, North & South Lawndale, and Austin.
Chicago's West Side is known for its rich cultural history and contributions to the city's music and arts scene. It has been home to many prominent African American musicians and artists, such as Sam Cooke, Muddy Waters, and Nat King Cole.
The West Side is also known for its historic neighborhoods, such as Austin, Garfield Park, and Humboldt Park, which are home to many beautiful historic buildings and landmarks. Additionally, the West Side has a reputation for being a center of community organizing and activism.
The West Side's demographics are rapidly changing: growth and decline of population, income, diversity, and economic investment varies significantly by neighborhood, and there are major shifts related to ethnic concentrations and where families with school-aged children live.
Let's take a look at the numbers for how Chicago's West Side has changed and some key imperatives for the nonprofits that serve those communities.
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The West Side’s population is growing at about the same rate as the rest of the Chicago: growing from 1.6% to 461 thousand over the past 10 years.
75% of that growth has come from the West Town and Near West Side neighborhoods. These areas have undergone significant economic development, which we will continue to discuss throughout this article.
Oppositely, the Lawndale and Garfield Park neighborhoods have seen significant population declines. These areas face significant challenges in terms of poverty, crime, disinvestment, and a lack of access to quality education and healthcare.
The West Side has become less diverse over the last 10 years, as many African American and Hispanic families leave troubled areas.
Most of the population growth has come from new white and Asian residents moving into the New West Side and West Town
Many black families have left the West Side, contributing to an overall 13% decline in the black population. The areas around Garfield Park, North & South Lawndale, and Austin have seen the largest declines.
The West Side's Hispanic community has also declined slightly over the last 10 years, especially in the Lower West Side, West Town, and North & South Lawndale neighborhoods. However, Austin and Humboldt Park has seen significant growth in the number of Hispanic residents.
This shift in cultural demographics is accompanied by a shift in populations that do not speak English well: There is a sizeable (51k people), but declining, population of Spanish speakers who do not speak English very well.
Oppositely, there are smaller (7k) but rapidly growing populations that do not speak English well, and instead speak various Asian, African, and Middle Eastern languages – particularly in the Lower and Near West Side neighborhoods.
While the community is becoming wealthier overall, there are still many people suffering from poverty
The West Side's Average Household Income has increased by 55% over the last 10 years to $92k – which is the highest growth rate of any of Chicago's "Sides."
The population growth in the West Town and Near West Side neighborhoods have also bolstered Median Household Incomes to >$100k - leading the rest of the West Side in absolute numbers and growth rate (>60%).
Unfortunately, the Garfield Park, North & South Lawndale, and Austin neighborhoods have faired less well: with MHI <$50k and growing <30% over the last 10 years.
With this growth in population and income, charitable giving of the West Side has increased by 76% from 2011 to 2021 to over $250 million. 60% of the West Side's donations now come from West Town and the Near West Side.
Like the rest of Chicago, the West Side has seen a significant decline in poverty over the last decade: in 2021 there were about 96k residents below the poverty level (22% poverty rate)
All neighborhoods have seen declines in populations below the poverty level
North & South Lawndale, East & West Garfield Parks, and Austin have persistently high poverty rates. They collectively have ~70% of the West Side's residents who are below the poverty level
Those areas, however, have seen remarkable improvements. North & South Lawndale, in particular, have 10,000 fewer residents in poverty than they did 10 years ago - a 32% reduction.
The changing demographics of West Town and the Near West Side has reduced the poverty rates to <10%.
Across the West Side, the largest age group in poverty are adults ages 18-64 (58k residents), but youths experience poverty at the highest rate (31% poverty rate) – both of these are trending downwards
However, the number of seniors (age 65+) below the poverty level has been constant over the past decade to 9,300 residents
The West Side’s youth population (<18 years old) has declined over the last 10 years, to 96 thousand people. Their geographic distribution is also changing
Following broader population movement trends, the youth population is declining rapidly across most of the West Side - most significantly in North & South Lawndale and East & West Garfield Park
However, there have been small increases in the number of youths in West Town and the Near West Side.
Across the West Side, there has also been 40% decline in youths below the poverty level - most significantly in the areas tracking the largest declines in overall youth population (e.g., North & South Lawndale, East & West Garfield Park)
The broad decline in youth population has led to under-utilized schools. This, combined with poor financial and standardized test score performance, led to many West Side schools being closed when the City and CPS announced a wave of school closings beginning in 2013. 42% of the schools that were closed were on Chicago's West Side - by far the largest concentration.
The number of housing units on the West Side is rising faster than population growth: ~4% over the last 10 years to 200k residences. The shape of the housing is shifting significantly
One of the most visible changes on the West Side has been the construction of new residential and commercial buildings, including high-rise apartments, hotels, and retail spaces in West Town and Near West Side Neighborhoods. This development comprises nearly all the housing growth on the West Side.
This development has led to an increase in property values and rents, which has made it more difficult for some longtime residents to afford to live in the area. There has been a push from community organizations and activists to ensure that development is balanced with efforts to preserve and create affordable housing options for residents - with limited results.
Oppositely, there have been net housing reductions across most of the rest of the West Side - particularly in North & South Lawndale, East & West Garfield Park, and around Austin.
The bright spot in Lawndale has been the building of +1,000 single family homes
The Home Ownership Rate tells a more positive story for much of the disinvested parts of the West Side - areas such as North & South Lawndale and Austin are increasing, while high-demand rental neighborhoods around West Town and the Near West Side are decreasing.
The diverse set of businesses in the West Side employ ~17% of Chicago’s overall workforce, and is the fastest growing of all of Chicago's Sides. The average salary is inline with Chicago's broad average, but it very unequally distributed.
Approximately 20% of the West Side jobs are in Health Care and Social Assistance - particularly around the large hospital systems, like Stroger and University of Illinois, and smaller ones, such as Mount Sinai and Ascension.
The Food Services, Professional Services, and Finance industries comprise 15%, 10%, and 5% of West Side jobs, respectively - almost 90% of which are also in the West Town and Near West Side neighborhoods.
The manufacturing, distribution, and transportation companies in the Lower West Side and Near West Side support about 12,000 jobs (~10% of West Side jobs).
The remaining 40% of jobs are highly fragmented across the rest of the West Side - another sign of the imbalance of economic investment
Imperatives for Nonprofits Serving Chicago’s West Side
The West Side's demographics are rapidly changing: growth and decline of population, income, diversity, and economic investment varies significantly by neighborhood, and there are major shifts related to ethnic concentrations and where families with school-aged children live.
Challenge #1: As populations move and the economics of neighborhoods change, nonprofits that serve specific segments (e.g., financially insecure, a particular culture or ethnicity, immigrants, English proficiency challenges, youths, elderly, etc.) in specific neighborhoods are finding the needs of those neighborhoods changing and demand for their services growing in other neighborhoods.
Nonprofits in this situation have 3 main options:
1. Adapt to changing needs of current neighborhoods:
Example: A nonprofit that offers educational and after-school programs in West Town may decide to expand offerings to be more attractive to the higher-income population moving in
This option often means building additional capabilities, rather than replacing one set with another. Additional capabilities generally mean those nonprofits will have to raise additional funds to operate effectively. In the educational example, it may mean offering sliding scale pricing for programs to raise additional money - enabling expanded program opportunities for those who cannot afford it.
This might be a good option if a nonprofit’s mission or funding strategy is tied to serving a specific neighborhood (e.g., a particular school or local organization) and it believes it can raise sufficient capital to fund the capability expansion.
2. Expand into neighborhoods with emerging needs similar to existing target segments
Example: A nonprofit that provides Spanish language services on the Lower West Side decides to expand into Austin. They observe a +30% decline in the number of people who speak only Spanish in their current neighborhoods, and a growing need in Austin.
This option also requires building additional capabilities, except with the intent of eventually scaling-down or eliminating legacy operations. This can be a challenging change to execute, because it is essentially rebuilding the organization: outreach, service delivery, fundraising, etc. Sometimes, a nonprofit can simply refocus existing resources; other times, incremental resources are required during a transition period. A merger or partnership can reduce risk and accelerate change.
This might be a good option if a nonprofit’s mission is tied to a demographic that is declining in its focus geography. The nonprofit will have to believe that this shift will continue and it will eventually be difficult to operate at a smaller scale. They also must believe there is sufficient unserved need in the new geography and that it can access funding to pursue this expansion.
3. Continue to focus on the current set of target segments and neighborhoods
Example: A community or cultural center in Garfield Park decides to continue to maintain its focus on its core target audience and neighborhood, despite a declining neighborhood population
This option often means planning for lower growth or operating at a smaller scale. Oftentimes, fundraising also becomes challenging for these types of organizations. However, many organizations continue to thrive for many years by focusing on operational efficiency, diversifying revenue streams, and staying relevant by advocating from a historical perspective. Mergers with other nonprofits that serve similar demographics can offer the opportunity to remove redundant operating costs – even if they have different geographic focuses.
This might be a good option if the nonprofit’s mission or identity are heavily tied to both the area and a target demographic, and they believe there will continue to be sufficient community need and funding capacity to operate at scale.
Challenge #2: Population declines across much of the West Side will make helping the remaining population even more difficult
This is particularly problematic in significantly-underinvested neighborhoods, such as North & South Lawndale and East & West Garfield Park. Net 11,000 people have left those neighborhoods in the last 10 years (9% of the population). The result is even fewer resources available to support schools, housing, and community investment. This will likely continue the vicious cycle of poverty, crime, and population decline.
Former Mayor Lightfoot's Invest South/West initiative seeks to reverse this trend with up to $750m planned investment on the South and West Sides. However, North Lawndale, Austin, and Humboldt Park are currently the only West Side neighborhoods with planned developments.
Nonprofits that serve these areas will likely continue to see greater need for human services, community projects, educational services, employment, etc. To scale-up capacity, these nonprofits should seek grant opportunities from the many foundations seeking to redevelop troubled areas in Chicago, solicit private donations from newer residents in West Town and Near West Side Neighborhoods, and work with community organizers to expand city-funded investment programs (and subsequent grant opportunities).
Challenge #3: Nonprofits have the opportunity for greater local fundraising
Almost all nonprofits that serve the West Side should be investing in Development capacity. There are almost 28 thousand additional households that earn more than $100k per year in the West Side than there were 10 years ago – many of these will receptive to pitches to help improve their communities. 60% of these are in West Town and the Near West Side. This is an excellent opportunity to fund an acceleration of the impact your nonprofit has in the community.
For a deeper understanding of the demographic, economic, and competitive dynamics affecting your nonprofit and advice with making the resulting strategic decisions and operational changes, contact Info@FocusStrategyAdvisors.com
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