Many of the nonprofits in Chicagoland focus on providing goods and services to local families. Their target audiences may be experiencing financial insecurity, come from a certain racial or ethnic background, are part of an immigrant community, are in a certain age bracket (e.g., children or seniors), or are part of another target demographic.
While these nonprofits often have a qualitative sense of their communities' needs, many struggle to quantitatively understand how their communities are changing over time - which is necessary for the "big decisions" about where to focus and resource allocation.
In this series, Focus Strategy Advisors provides a by-the-numbers view of some of the demographic shifts at play in Chicagoland communities and identifies what that means for the nonprofits that serve them.
This is a sample the types of data and analyses Focus Strategy Advisors can bring to help nonprofits understand how the communities they serve are changing. For a deeper look into your specific focus geographies, target segments, and their respective needs contact us at Info@FocusStrategyAdvisors.com
Today, we’re looking at Chicago’s Far North Side.
Chicago’s Far North Side consists of the northern most communities in the city, from Lake Michigan to O’Hare. It has the largest population of Chicago’s nine “sides,” and consists of Uptown, Edgewater, Rogers Park, Lincoln Square, West Ridge, Albany Park, North Park, Forest Glen, Jefferson Park, Norwood Park, Edison Park, and O’Hare.
The Far North Side is known for its diverse neighborhoods, vibrant food and cultural scenes, many ethnic communities, beautiful lake side parks, and business districts.
Over the last 10 years, the Far North Side demographics have changed rapidly: it has grown, become more diverse, become wealthier (though poverty remains a persistent problem), and there have been major shifts related to ethnic concentrations and where families with school-aged children live.
Let's take a look at the numbers for how Chicago's Far North Side has changed and some key imperatives for the nonprofits that serve those communities.
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The Far North Side’s population is growing slightly faster than the rest of the Chicago: growing from ~4% to 480 thousand over the past 10 years (verses 1.3% for Chicago overall)
75% of that growth has come from the Uptown, Edgewater, and West Ridge neighborhoods
The central part of the Far North Side (Jefferson Park, Albany Park, and North Park) and Rogers Park, however, have not experienced much net population growth in the last 10 years
The Far North Side has become more diverse over the last 10 years, but half the population remains white
Most of the population growth continues to come from new white residents and mixed families moving into the area, particularly in the central and eastern neighborhoods of Lincoln Square, Uptown, Edgewater, West Ridge, and Rogers Park
The overall size of the Hispanic population has not changed by much in the last 10 years, but it is spreading out more beyond historic communities around Lincoln Square, Albany Park, and North Park
Asian communities continue to grow, particularly in Northwest communities of Jefferson Park, Portage Park, and Norwood Park. These families now comprise 12.5% of the population
Neighborhoods around Lincoln Square and Rogers Park are becoming significantly less diverse, while diversity is on the rise in neighborhoods around Jefferson Park
This shift in cultural demographics is accompanies by a shift in populations that do not speak English well: There is a sizeable (31k people), but declining, population of Spanish speakers who do not speak English very well. This change is most apparent around Lincoln Square and Rogers Park
Oppositely, there are smaller (25k) but rapidly growing populations that do not speak English well, and instead speak various Asian, African, and Middle Eastern languages – particularly in the northwest, near Portage Park, Jefferson Park, and Norwood Park
While the community is becoming wealthier overall, there are still many people suffering from poverty
The Average Household Income has increased by 40% over the last 10 years to ~$96k – which tracks very closely with Chicago’s overall average
The northwest areas (Forest Glen, Edison Park, and Norwood Park) have the greatest median household incomes ($104k) – which has also grown by 40-50% over the last 10 years
Unfortunately, neighborhoods in the Northeast have faired less well: Rogers Park and West Ridge have median household incomes $51-63k, and have grown by ~30% over the last 10 years
With this growth in population and income, charitable giving of the Far North Side has increased by 50% from 2011 to 2021 to over $300 million.
Like the rest of Chicago, the Far North Side has seen a significant decline in poverty over the last decade: in 2021 there were about 65k residents below the poverty level (13.8% poverty rate)
The central and Eastern neighborhoods (North Park, Albany Park, Lincoln Square, West Ridge, Uptown, Edgewater, and Rogers Park) collectively have >80% of the Far North Side’s residents who are below the poverty level
These neighborhoods also have the highest poverty rates, as high as 20% for Rogers Park and Uptown
While the western neighborhoods have far fewer people in poverty, Edison Park, Norwood Park, and Forest Glen have actually seen 35-65% increases in residents below the poverty level.
Across the Far North Side, the largest age group in poverty are adults ages 18-64 (38k residents), but youths experience poverty at the highest rate (18% poverty rate) – both of these are trending downwards
However, the number of seniors (age 65+) below the poverty level has risen by 17% over the past decade to 9,500 residents
The Far North Side’s youth population (<18 years old) has been flat over the last 10 years, at 92 thousand people, but their geographic distribution has changed significantly
Areas around Rogers Park, Albany Park, Lincoln Square, and Jefferson Park have each lost >10% of their youth populations
However, the youth populations of West Ridge, Edgewater, Forest Glen, Norwood Park, and Edison Park are rapidly growing as new families move there
Across the Far North Side, there has also been ~20% decline in youths below the poverty line – most significantly around Lincoln Square, Rogers Park, and Jefferson Park
The number of housing units on the Far North Side has risen commensurate with its population growth: ~4% over the last 10 years to 217k residences – however the shape of the market has shifted significantly
Following the population growth, almost 60% of new housing units are in the neighborhoods around Lincoln Square, Uptown, and Edgewater
Throughout the Far North Side, there has been a trend away from large 10+ unit buildings – with a reduction of ~850 of these units (-1.1%) – particularly in areas around Lincoln Square and Edgewater
West Ridge opposes this trend, replacing ~750 units in townhomes, duplexes, and 3-4-unit buildings with 1,500 units in buildings with 5+ units
Rogers Park is rapidly undergoing “condo-ification,” with ~25% of single family homes and townhomes replaced by multi-unit buildings – most commonly 3-4 units
Oppositely, the northwest neighborhoods near Jefferson Park, Norwood Park, and Forest Glen have added mostly single family homes (+1,500 units)
Owner-occupancy rate has declined broadly across the Far North Side, to 47%
The northwest (Forest Glen, Edison Park, Norwood Park) has the highest owner-occupancy rates (>75%); Forest Glen was the only neighborhood with a significant rise in owner-occupancy rate over the last 10 years (+6%)
The diverse set of businesses in the Far North Side employ ~10% of Chicago’s overall workforce, and have grown at a similar rate to the rest of the non-downtown Sides. The average salary is slightly less than the rest of the non-downtown Sides of $57k
Approximately 40% of jobs in the area are in the Transportation & Logistics industry and concentrated around O’Hare
Healthcare is the next largest employment industry (18% of jobs) and is concentrated around the big hospital systems in Uptown, Lincoln Square, and West Ridge
Employers in Norwood Park and Edison Park offer the highest average wages ($82k), due to a diverse set of professional positions in Business Services, Administrative, and Accommodation
Imperatives for Nonprofits Serving Chicago’s Far North Side
The Far North Side demographics are rapidly changing: it is growing, become more diverse, becoming wealthier (though poverty remains a persistent problem), and there are major shifts related to ethnic concentrations and where families with school-aged children live.
Challenge #1: As populations move and the economics of neighborhoods change, nonprofits that serve specific segments (e.g., financially insecure, a particular culture or ethnicity, immigrants, English proficiency challenges, youths, elderly, etc.) in specific neighborhoods are finding the needs of those neighborhoods changing and demand for their services growing in other neighborhoods.
Nonprofits in this situation have 3 main options:
1. Adapt to changing needs of current neighborhoods:
Example: A nonprofit that offers Spanish language services around Jefferson Park decides to also offer Tagalog language services, to assist the rapidly growing Filipino population, as the number of Spanish-speakers declines
This option often means building additional capabilities, rather than replacing one set of capabilities with another. In the language example, it may mean hiring Tagalog-speakers for outreach, service delivery, and fundraising.
This might be a good option if a nonprofit’s mission or funding strategy is tied to serving a specific neighborhood (not a specific population) and it believes it can raise sufficient capital to fund the capability expansion
2. Expand into neighborhoods with emerging needs similar to existing target segments
Example: A nonprofit that provides educational services to financially-insecure youths in Rogers Park decides to refocus on West Ridge and North Park
This option also requires building additional capabilities, except with the intent of eventually scaling-down or eliminating legacy operations. This can be a challenging change to execute, because it is essentially rebuilding the organization: outreach, service delivery, fundraising, etc. Sometimes, a nonprofit can simply refocus existing resources; other times, incremental resources are required during a transition period. A merger or partnership can reduce risk and accelerate change.
This might be a good option if a nonprofit’s mission is tied to a demographic that is declining in its focus geography. The nonprofit will have to believe that this shift will continue and it will eventually be difficult to operate at a smaller scale. They also must believe there is sufficient unserved need in the new geography and that it can access funding to pursue this expansion.
3. Continue to focus on the current set of target segments and neighborhoods
Example: A polish community or cultural center in Jefferson Park decides to continue to maintain its focus on its core target audience and neighborhood, despite a declining Polish population in that area
This option often means planning for lower growth or operating at a smaller scale. Oftentimes, fundraising also becomes challenging for these types of organizations. However, many organizations continue to thrive for many years by focusing on operational efficiency, diversifying revenue streams, and staying relevant by advocating from a historical perspective. Mergers with other nonprofits that serve similar demographics can offer the opportunity to remove redundant operating costs – even if they have different geographic focuses.
This might be a good option if the nonprofit’s mission or identity are heavily tied to both the area and a target demographic, and they believe there will continue to be sufficient community need and funding capacity to operate at scale.
Challenge #2: Nonprofits have the opportunity for greater local fundraising
Almost all nonprofits that serve the Far North Side should be investing in Development capacity. There are almost 30 thousand additional households that earn more than $100k per year in the Far North Side than there were 10 years ago – many of these will receptive to pitches to help improve their communities. This is an excellent opportunity to fund an acceleration of the impact your nonprofit has in the community.
For a deeper understanding of the demographic, economic, and competitive dynamics affecting your nonprofit and advice with making the resulting strategic decisions and operational changes, contact Info@FocusStrategyAdvisors.com